Welcome to the Goudsmit UK November Market Update. This update provides an overview of key developments, helping you stay informed and prepared for whatever the market brings.
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Trade Policy: Stricter Rare Earth Controls Postponed, Existing Licence Rules Remain
The trade policy landscape for critical magnetic materials remains highly regulated, with export licences still required and scrutiny at Chinese ports ongoing.
Following Trump–Xi Meeting:
After trade discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in early November, China announced a 12-month postponement of the stricter rare earth export controls that were due to take effect later this month. These measures would have expanded oversight and tightened conditions on exports of rare earth materials.
Current Controls Remain in Force:
The export licence system introduced in April remains active. All shipments containing specified rare earth materials must still undergo licence approval — typically taking around 45–60 working days, depending on material grade, end use, and destination.
Compliance Still Essential:
Although the stricter phase of controls has been paused until late 2026, Chinese Customs continue to enforce the existing documentation and verification requirements. Exporters must ensure complete and accurate declarations to avoid delays or additional inspections at port.
Exchange Rate
Worst GBP to USD exchange rate in October 2025: 1.3155
Best GBP to USD exchange rate in October 2025: 1.3481
Average GBP to USD exchange rate in October 2025: 1.3363
Port Operations
The ocean market is defined by carriers’ efforts to maintain the elevated rate levels achieved in Q4, primarily through disciplined capacity withdrawal despite high operational costs from rerouting.
Continuous Rerouting: The structural reality remains the Cape of Good Hope detour due to persistent Red Sea security issues. This maintains the lengthy end-to-end transit times on the Asia-Europe Lane, making reliable holiday arrival now largely impossible for new bookings.
Capacity Strategy: Carriers are successfully using blank sailings to artificially tighten capacity. This prevents a sharp rate collapse, but it means space is tightly controlled and can be cancelled with short notice.
Rates
Following the successful General Rate Increases (GRIs) in early November, rates have largely stabilized at elevated levels. Carriers are expected to try and sustain these prices through December, setting a high floor for annual contract negotiations in Q1 2026.
Importers should expect continued pressure on pricing, with limited opportunities for spot-rate bargains, as any significant slack capacity is quickly removed by blank sailing programs.
Airport Operations
Air freight remains the critical lifeline for time-sensitive cargo, with demand vastly outstripping capacity due to Q4 retail pressure and structural growth in e-commerce.
Space: Air freight capacity is critically constrained. The surge in cross-border e-commerce volumes from Asia continues to soak up available space, leaving standard commercial freight to compete for the remainder. This is particularly challenging on China-Europe routes.
Rates: Prices are at a significant premium and will remain so for the rest of the month. Expect high volatility and sharp rate spikes as major shippers bid aggressively for the remaining space to fulfil last-minute Christmas inventory.
Transit: Despite the expense, businesses should factor in potential delays at major Chinese and European air cargo hubs due to the sheer volume of December movements overwhelming ground handling operations.
Commodity Rates
- Aluminium continued its steady climb to $2.91/kg, marking its highest level of the year.
- Cobalt extended its sharp rally to $56.17/kg, driven by continued tight supply.
- Neodymium fell to $90/kg, while Samarium recovered to $11.50/kg – both still influenced by China’s ongoing rare earth export restrictions.
- Nickel remained stable at $15.37/kg, and Zinc inched higher to $3.08/kg.
At Goudsmit, we understand that today’s supply chain landscape demands flexibility and foresight. Our team is ready to help you plan shipments, manage risks, and ensure deliveries arrive with as little disruption as possible. If you’d like to review current orders, discuss future requirements, or explore strategies to build resilience into 2026, please get in touch—we’re here to support your business at every stage.
Thanks for reading the Goudsmit UK Market Update. At Goudsmit UK, we specialise in providing high-quality magnets and engineered components tailored to meet your specific needs.
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